BLOG POSTS ARE PRELIMINARY MATERIALS CIRCULATED TO STIMULATE DISCUSSION AND CRITICAL COMMENT. THE VIEWS EXPRESSED ARE THOSE OF THE INDIVIDUAL AUTHORS. WHILE BLOG POSTS BENEFIT FROM ACTIVE UHERO DISCUSSION, THEY HAVE NOT UNDERGONE FORMAL ACADEMIC PEER REVIEW.
By Daniela Bond-Smith, Trey Gordner, Caleb Wood
Eighteen months after the August 2023 wildfires, Maui’s fire-impacted households continue to face significant economic and housing instability. While some indicators suggest limited progress, the latest findings from the Maui Recovery Survey: Housing & Jobs show that many challenges remain.
The survey, launched by the University of Hawai‘i Economic Research Organization (UHERO) in partnership with the Hawai‘i Community Foundation, has tracked monthly housing and economic conditions among fire-affected households since the one-year anniversary of the disaster in August 2024. Survey participants lived, worked, or owned a business in West Maui or Kula during the August 2023 wildfires. The most recent data, covering September 2024 through February 2025, provides insight into the ongoing difficulties faced by those directly affected by the fires.
While the initial months after the wildfires were characterized by widespread displacement, emergency assistance, and rapid shifts in economic conditions, the past six months suggest that the recovery process has been slow in many areas. For instance, while some fire-affected households have transitioned into more stable housing arrangements, broader affordability and employment challenges remain largely unchanged.
Housing Stability and Affordability
Many fire-affected households still face significant housing challenges, grappling with increased rent costs, displacement, and ongoing instability. It is encouraging that housing conditions for fire-impacted households have seen some signs of stabilization in recent months. The proportion of displaced households in temporary housing decreased from 51% to 45%, suggesting that a small number of households have been able to transition into longer-term accommodations. Additionally, more than 70% of displaced residents in temporary housing have now remained in the same location for at least six months, indicating a reduction in the frequency of forced relocations. At the same time, nearly half of all respondents are still in temporary housing. Among them, over a third are either living with friends and family, in temporary units without assistance, or are unhoused. This is nearly double what it was before the disaster.
In addition, housing affordability challenges remain daunting. Compared to pre-fire levels, rents remain 50-60% higher for homes with the same or even fewer bedrooms, with no measurable decline since August 2024. Larger units remain particularly expensive, with three-bedroom or larger rentals costing nearly 90% more than before the disaster. For people who maintained the same number of bedrooms as well as those who maintained similar income as before the wildfires, there has been an upward trend in the percentage of people paying less in rent in the last few months. Still, overall affordability remains a critical issue. This burden is especially severe for individuals whose incomes have declined post-fire. About half of them now face higher rental costs.
For many households, displacement remains a defining feature of their post-fire experience. Approximately 90% of Lahaina burn area residents remain displaced, a figure that has changed little over time. Additionally, many people from other areas of the island who worked or owned businesses in West Maui or Kula have also been forced to relocate and remain displaced.
Despite these hardships, most displaced residents intend to return to West Maui. About one-third of households currently residing outside the area plan to move back within the next year. This has increased slightly in the last six months. But the lack of affordable housing options presents a significant barrier.
As Maui continues to recover, addressing the housing crisis remains a pressing priority. Efforts must focus on increasing affordable housing options, expediting the rebuilding process and reducing the rental cost burden. The resilience of Maui’s residents is evident in their commitment to returning home, but without sufficient support, many may continue to face prolonged displacement and economic hardship.
Economic Conditions and Employment Trends
In addition to housing instability, the survey results indicate persistent economic challenges. Following the fires, many households faced soaring rental costs—more than 50% higher than before—while also experiencing fewer job opportunities. As a result, financial burdens remain extraordinary. About a quarter of surveyed individuals now earn less than half of their pre-fire incomes.
Among those surveyed, 15% have fallen into poverty since the wildfires, while only 2-4% have seen their financial situation improve enough to move above the poverty threshold. Overall, poverty rates remain twice as high as before the fires, with more than 20% of affected households living below the poverty line. Over the past six months, this measure has remained largely unchanged, suggesting that many families have not been able to improve their financial circumstances.
The labor market for fire-affected residents has shown little improvement. Many have seen their work hours reduced, their earnings decline, or have lost jobs entirely. Unemployment rates among fire-affected individuals remain higher than the overall Maui population, and there has been no clear upward trend in employment since August 2024.
The tourism sector has seen significant job losses. Only about 60% of those who worked in tourism (accommodation, food, and recreation services) before the fires remain employed in the industry, and fewer than half have retained full-time positions in the sector.
As Maui continues its recovery, addressing economic instability remains critical. Efforts must include providing financial relief and supporting employment opportunities. Without targeted support, many fire-affected households risk prolonged economic hardship.
Assistance and Support Networks
As economic and housing challenges persist, the availability of financial assistance has declined. The survey indicates that nearly one-third of respondents reported receiving no financial assistance in the past month, a notable reduction compared to earlier in the recovery process.
Similarly, SNAP (food stamps) and other government aid programs now support fewer fire-impacted households than in previous months. While about a third of survey respondents received unemployment benefits at some point after the wildfires, the share of those still receiving unemployment support has dropped to between 3-7%. These shifts suggest that many households are now navigating the recovery process with fewer support resources than before.
Conclusion
The findings from the Maui Recovery Survey: Housing & Jobs illustrate the long-term nature of post-disaster recovery and the challenges many fire-affected households continue to face. While some displaced residents have gained more stable housing arrangements, affordability remains a critical issue. At the same time, poverty rates have not declined, and employment recovery has been sluggish, particularly in key industries such as leisure and hospitality.
As financial assistance programs scale back, many households are relying more heavily on their own resources to manage ongoing economic pressures. The latest data suggests that for many fire-impacted households, the process of economic and housing recovery remains incomplete, with conditions largely unchanged in recent months.
While these data reflect very little progress in some areas, such as gains in employment and earnings, and small gains in housing stability, it is important to recognize that these results reflect the impact of direct support, progress on delivering housing, as well as the anemic recovery of tourism to Maui. Without Federal, State, County and non-profit assistance, we would expect even greater negative impacts and continuing deterioration, including a larger number of households leaving Maui.
The Maui Recovery Survey: Housing & Jobs will continue to monitor these trends, providing updated insights into the evolving conditions of fire-affected communities. So far more than 900 people have participated in the survey, with an average monthly sample of about 425 responses. The full dataset and analysis are available at UHERO Maui Recovery Dashboard.