Hawaii’s economic prospects remain poor. US trade policy is impacting key international visitor markets, and tariffs and uncertainty also weigh on the US economy. In Hawaii, visitor numbers are down, job growth has stalled, and housing activity remains weak. Inflation will rise over the next year as tariffs feed through to consumer prices. Construction remains the only major source of strength, supported by large federal contracts and other public projects. We will see a mild recession in the Islands over the next year, with the weakening US economy threatening a potentially deeper downturn.
UHERO Assistant Professor Steven Bond-Smith provides a summary of the 2025 third quarter forecast report in this episode of “UHERO Focus.”