Hawaii’s recovery has experienced a setback with the recent surge in COVID-19. Record virus numbers and preventive policy responses have caused an abrupt tourism pullback and are signalling a near-term decline in overall economic activity. While the Delta wave may now have turned the corner, we are in for a period of weakness before growth resumes late in the year. The end to federal fiscal support will weigh on recovery going forward, and a full return to pre-pandemic conditions remains several years down the road.
