Hawaii’s economic growth is threatened by federal disruptions. While tax cuts may provide some stimulus this year, the Administration’s actions—including tariffs, mass deportations, and spending cuts—will impose significant drag thereafter. The clearest near-term risk is federal layoffs, which will result in a loss of more than 2,000 local jobs, fully offsetting growth in construction and the lift from local tax cuts. Together with other federal policies, this places the Hawaii economy at risk of recession over the next few years.
UHERO Executive Director Carl Bonham provides a summary of the 2025 first quarter forecast report in this episode of “UHERO Focus.”