UHERO State Forecast Update: Coronavirus Presents Danger to Hawaii Tourism

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Hawaii’s economy has been on an expected slowing trend for the past several years. While visitor arrivals racked up another record year in 2019, real visitor spending fell last year as international spending languished. And now the coronavirus rears its ugly head. That represents a considerable—if as yet uncertain—risk to Hawaii’s economy in the year to come.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO’s Forecast Project.

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2 thoughts on “UHERO State Forecast Update: Coronavirus Presents Danger to Hawaii Tourism”

  1. Your report does not leave decision-makers and the public with an appreciation of how severe the economic downturn could be. Even if Hawaii did not have another Covid case, visitor counts could go to zero. Hope not, but given how countries have to shut down to slow down the spread of the virus, discretionary plane travel will drop dramatically.
    Don’t look at the SARS experience as your primary reference. Look at Italy. Everything shut down except pharmacies and grocery stores. International travel could go to zero here. Domestic travel will probably not go to zero, but 10% possibly.
    Given what has actually happened in other countries, you have a responsibility to educate decision-makers as to what could happen economically here so they can start planning now rather than reacting as it happens.

  2. Your report does not leave decision-makers and the public with an appreciation of how severe the economic downturn could be. Even if Hawaii did not have another Covid case, visitor counts could go to zero. Hope not, but given how countries have to shut down to slow down the spread of the virus, discretionary plane travel will drop dramatically.
    Don’t look at the SARS experience as your primary reference. Look at Italy. Everything shut down except pharmacies and grocery stores. International travel could go to zero here. Domestic travel will probably not go to zero, but 10% possibly.
    Given what has actually happened in other countries, you have a responsibility to educate decision-makers as to what could happen economically here so they can start planning now rather than reacting as it happens.

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