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Products: Forecasts

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Hawaii's Economy In Need of An Engine

Posted October 14, 2014 | Categories: Forecasts

Prospects for Hawaii growth remain muted. Despite a pickup over the summer, visitor arrivals have been soft this year, and the period of robust visitor spending increases is behind us. A mixed global economic environment and limited visitor industry capacity will keep a lid on future gains. While the construction expansion continues, it does so at a slower pace than anticipated and has created few new jobs in 2014. The building trades nevertheless remain the most likely drivers of expansion over the next several years.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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Annual Hawaii Forecast: Hawaii Growth Slows As Global Risks Rise

Posted August 8, 2014 | Categories: Forecasts

The stall in tourism has slowed the Hawaii economy, and no other sector has yet emerged to provide offsetting stimulus. Construction has been slow to take over as a growth driver, but this will change as we move into 2015. Barring adverse economic developments outside Hawaii, this should be sufficient to support restrained growth in employment and some improvement in household income.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO County Forecast: Despite Lull in Tourism, County Expansions Continue

Posted May 23, 2014 | Categories: Forecasts

Moderate economic expansion will continue in each of Hawaii’s counties. Last year’s tourism weakness continued in the first quarter of this year, and incremental gains for 2014 will be slight. Beyond this year, available capacity will limit further visitor industry growth. The construction expansion has proceeded further on Oahu than the elsewhere in the state, but it is also poised to contribute growth momentum to all counties going forward. In the broader economy, job growth will continue to bring down unemployment rates and will set the stage for a return to more satisfactory growth in personal income.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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Hawaii Construction Forecast: Construction Upturn On Track

Posted March 28, 2014 | Categories: Forecasts

Hawaii’s construction expansion continues apace. New condo towers in Kakaako are spurring double-digit growth in permits for residential construction. A sharp rise in commercial construction, much of it in resort areas, is on the horizon. Public spending on infrastructure has also leapt upward, as the State works to address shortfalls that have built up in recent years. And with recent federal court victories, the way ahead is now clear for Honolulu rail rapid transit. Now in its third year of recovery, the construction industry is positioned for healthy growth over the next several years.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: After Austerity, Road Ahead Will Be Smoother

Posted February 28, 2014 | Categories: Forecasts

Federal budget woes caused a softening of growth at year-end. With that behind us, we’ll see better performance in 2014.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO Asia-Pacific Forecast: Pacific Rim Will Edge Forward After Weak 2013

Posted December 6, 2013 | Categories: Forecasts


The Asia-Pacific region has seen another year of lackluster growth. The global environment for exports— the region’s lifeblood—has remained exceptionally weak, as the European debt crisis has lingered and US fiscal contraction and inaction have slowed the world’s largest economy. Developed economy weakness and a deliberate policy shift have limited the growth impetus from China as well. 2014 promises to be marginally better, now that Europe has begun to emerge from recession and the worst of the US budget drag is hopefully behind us.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

 

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UHERO State Forecast Update: No Shutdown For Hawaii Growth

Posted October 25, 2013 | Categories: Forecasts

Growth is holding up in Hawaii, driven by still-strong tourism and rising construction. Recent hints of slowing make Washington worrisome.

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Annual Hawaii Forecast: Expansion to Strengthen Despite Washington Worries

Posted August 9, 2013 | Categories: Forecasts

Hawaii is headed toward a strong expansion path. While federal tax increases and the spending sequester have weighed on growth in the year’s first half, construction and service sector progress will maintain forward momentum. Incremental contributions from tourism will be more limited as that industry pushes up against capacity constraints. The Islands are poised for several years of moderately rapid growth that will bring measurable improvements for many local families.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO County Forecast: Growth Accelerates Statewide

Posted May 24, 2013 | Categories: Forecasts

2012 was another year of strong tourism gains for Hawaii’s counties, and a year when significant growth spread to much of the broader economy. Oahu continues to be further along in recovery, but the Neighbor Islands are catching up fast. This year, economic growth will quicken, with an impetus from construction, which has turned the corner and is poised for a strong pickup in activity. The broadening recovery together with modest inflation will drive growth in real incomes across the counties over the next several years.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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Hawaii Construction Forecast: Construction Upswing Picks Up Speed

Posted March 29, 2013 | Categories: Forecasts

Construction turned the corner in Hawaii last year after five straight years of contraction. We are now seeing impressive gains in percentage terms for private building permits, although these are starting from very depressed levels. Home building, retail and visitor industry upgrades, the ongoing boom in photovoltaic installation, and, yes, rail, will combine to drive a strong industry expansion over the next several years.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Expansion Shifts Into Higher Gear

Posted February 15, 2013 | Categories: Forecasts

2012 marked a transition to healthier growth. Room for rapid tourism gains is now limited, but other sectors will pick up the pace.

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UHERO Asia-Pacific Foreacast: Developing Countries Buoy Asian Growth

Posted December 7, 2012 | Categories: Forecasts

The never-ending European debt debacle and stuttering US recovery have taken a bite out of Asia-Pacific growth this year. Higher income Asian economies have suffered the most from the trade falloff. At the same time, labor markets and fiscal conditions in East and Southeast Asian developing countries remain far stronger than in the developed world. As a result, growth prospects for the region continue to look rosier than in much of the rest of the world, if softer than we saw in the early post-crisis rebound.

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UHERO State Forecast Update: Tourism Shines, Construction Clouds Lifting

 

Hawaii’s tourism juggernaut powers onward, but growth elsewhere remains elusive. Broader—and a bit stronger—expansion is in the pipeline.

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UHERO Annual Hawaii Forecast: Tourism Hot, But Broader Growth Still Elusive

Posted July 27, 2012 | Categories: Forecasts

Hawaii’s recovery is proceeding along two very different tracks. The tourism industry is on a tear, posting impressive rates of growth. With a few exceptions, the rest of the local economy is going nowhere. Nevertheless, the best residential building conditions in years and pending public projects set the stage for a construction upturn in 2013. And once the global gloom lifts, consumer confidence will drive some pickup in non-tourism sectors that have lagged in the recovery so far.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

 

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UHERO County Forecast: Jobs Still Lag in County Recoveries

Posted May 18, 2012 | Categories: Forecasts

The recovery of Hawaii’s county economies continues to be fueled by the visitor industry, especially by arrivals from non-traditional markets. Job growth turned positive in three of the four counties last year, but the extent of labor market gains was disappointing. The upturn will pick up speed in 2012.

A summary of this forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed analysis, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

 

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