How I know we’re Not in a Recession. (And when we’ll know if we are.)September 26, 2024By Byron Gangnes Try to tell people that we are not in a recession, and you will get a lot of pushback. After all, jobs are harder to come by, prices are high, and some people are struggling to finance credit card debt. Some households are feeling these effects, and those who are not may be… Read More
Governor Green Announces SNAP Rule Changes Following UHERO StudySeptember 23, 2024Governor Josh Green has announced that Hawai‘i will implement changes to its Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), following recommendations from a UHERO study co-authored by UHERO Assistant Professor Dylan Moore and Nate Hix of the Hawai‘i Institute of Public Health. These changes are expected to provide an additional $45 million in benefits to struggling families… Read More
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Lagging Maui recovery, slower speed limit for Hawaii growthSeptember 20, 2024Hawaii’s economic outlook continues to be a story of two economies: a Maui economy that will only gradually recover from its post-wildfire downturn, and the other counties as a group, whose visitor industries will continue to operate at a high level, and whose macroeconomic conditions will remain broadly favorable. Hawaii's trend growth is now slower… Read More
Potential opportunities to diversify the economy of Hawai‘iJuly 2, 2024Read the summary blog post. The economy of Hawai‘i is extraordinarily concentrated in the tourism industry. As a result of tourism’s dominance, Hawai‘i’s economy faces short-term risks from shocks that impact visitor numbers and long-term stagnation from flat and volatile tourism spending over the last three decades. In response to these issues—which became especially salient… Read More
Potential opportunities to diversify the economy of HawaiʻiJuly 2, 2024Read the full report By: Steven Bond-Smith and Sumit Ilamkar The economy of Hawaiʻi is extraordinarily concentrated in the tourism industry. As a result of tourism’s dominance, Hawaiʻi's economy faces short-term risks from shocks that impact visitor numbers and long-term stagnation from flat and volatile tourism spending over the last three decades. In response to… Read More
Exploring the Gender Pay Gap in Hawai‘iMay 28, 2024The US has made substantial progress in closing the historical earnings gap between men and women, but data from the American Community Survey (ACS) shows that from 2015 to 2022 full-time working women in the US earned 84 cents for every dollar a man made. In Hawai‘i, full-time women fared slightly better, making 86 cents… Read More
Japan Update: Struggling to escape inflation’s dragMay 21, 2024By Byron Gangnes Like all countries, Japan was hit hard by COVID-19, and the economy has struggled to get back on track since. Some headwinds are familiar to Japan: the softness in foreign markets has hurt an economy for which exports remain an important source of growth. But the pandemic’s aftermath also brought very unfamiliar… Read More
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Expansion intact, but counties poised for slower growthMay 10, 2024Hawaii’s economy will continue to grow, but at a slower pace than in past years. Maui rebuilding and the incremental return of international travelers will support tourism, helping to offset a moderate pullback in the US mainland market. Construction will continue to be a source of strength, even as overall job and income growth decelerate.… Read More
Unclaimed: Over $15 million in Tax Credits for Low Income HouseholdsApril 29, 2024By Dylan T. Moore (UHERO) & Baybars Karacaovali (Office of Tax Research and Planning, Hawai'i Department of Taxation) In 2021, low-income households in Hawaii were eligible for about $42 million through the state’s refundable food/excise income tax credit. But over one third—or $15.3 million—of this money went unclaimed. These estimates come from a new analysis… Read More
Wealth by Association? How Social Networks Drive Inequality in HawaiiApril 25, 2024Studies show that economic connectedness, a poor individual’s share of wealthy friends, significantly impacts economic mobility. Hawaii ranks highly in this metric compared to other states, but disparities exist in local schools. Private high schools have much higher economic connectedness than public schools, driven mainly by students' exposure to wealthy peers. To improve connectedness, policymakers… Read More
UHERO’s Byron Gangnes to be featured at HEA webinarMarch 20, 2024On Thursday, March 28, UHERO's Byron Gangnes will join First Hawaiian Bank's Steve Rodgers in a webinar hosted by the Hawaii Economic Association to discuss the macroeconomic outlook, monetary policy, and post-pandemic changes to the economy. Paul Brewbaker will moderate. Click here to learn more and register for the event. Read More
The Gender Pay Gap in HawaiiMarch 12, 2024By Rachel Inafuku In recognition of International Women's Day, which was recently celebrated on March 8, UHERO wishes to underscore the importance of women in the workforce by highlighting research on the gender pay gap in Hawaii that was presented in our latest forecast report. Please keep an eye out for forthcoming research that explores… Read More
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Near-term slowing expected as pandemic recovery endsFebruary 23, 2024Hawaii’s economy has been sustained by a resilient US and the gradual return of international visitors. With the Islands’ post-pandemic recovery now largely complete, the economy will downshift this year, and support for growth will increasingly come from local sources, including a robust construction sector that will be bolstered by Maui rebuilding. On the Valley… Read More
The supply side: AI, immigration, and non-inflationary growthFebruary 21, 2024By Byron Gangnes Home from last week’s National Association for Business Economics Policy Conference in Washington DC. Not surprisingly, many of the sessions ended up touching on some aspects of artificial intelligence (AI). Back to this in a minute. But one topic that showed up in several sessions was how the supply side of the… Read More
How I know we’re Not in a Recession. (And when we’ll know if we are.) September 26, 2024 By Byron Gangnes Try to tell people that we are not in a recession, and you will get a lot of pushback. After all, jobs are harder to come by, prices are high, and some people are struggling to finance credit card debt. Some households are feeling these effects, and those who are not may be… Read More
Governor Green Announces SNAP Rule Changes Following UHERO Study September 23, 2024 Governor Josh Green has announced that Hawai‘i will implement changes to its Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), following recommendations from a UHERO study co-authored by UHERO Assistant Professor Dylan Moore and Nate Hix of the Hawai‘i Institute of Public Health. These changes are expected to provide an additional $45 million in benefits to struggling families… Read More
Hawaiʻi’s Unnecessary Benefit Cliff: How One Small Policy Change Could Deliver Tens of Millions in Federally-Funded SNAP Benefits September 23, 2024 By Dylan Moore and Nate Hix (Hawaiʻi Public Health Institute) In Hawaiʻi, as in other states, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)—otherwise known as food stamps—is one of the largest welfare programs available to low-income residents. Currently, a family of four can receive as much as $1,759/month in SNAP benefits. In a typical month, the… Read More
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Lagging Maui recovery, slower speed limit for Hawaii growth September 20, 2024 Hawaii’s economic outlook continues to be a story of two economies: a Maui economy that will only gradually recover from its post-wildfire downturn, and the other counties as a group, whose visitor industries will continue to operate at a high level, and whose macroeconomic conditions will remain broadly favorable. Hawaii's trend growth is now slower… Read More
Potential opportunities to diversify the economy of Hawai‘i July 2, 2024 Read the summary blog post. The economy of Hawai‘i is extraordinarily concentrated in the tourism industry. As a result of tourism’s dominance, Hawai‘i’s economy faces short-term risks from shocks that impact visitor numbers and long-term stagnation from flat and volatile tourism spending over the last three decades. In response to these issues—which became especially salient… Read More
Exploring the Gender Pay Gap in Hawai‘i May 28, 2024 The US has made substantial progress in closing the historical earnings gap between men and women, but data from the American Community Survey (ACS) shows that from 2015 to 2022 full-time working women in the US earned 84 cents for every dollar a man made. In Hawai‘i, full-time women fared slightly better, making 86 cents… Read More
Japan Update: Struggling to escape inflation’s drag May 21, 2024 By Byron Gangnes Like all countries, Japan was hit hard by COVID-19, and the economy has struggled to get back on track since. Some headwinds are familiar to Japan: the softness in foreign markets has hurt an economy for which exports remain an important source of growth. But the pandemic’s aftermath also brought very unfamiliar… Read More
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Expansion intact, but counties poised for slower growth May 10, 2024 Hawaii’s economy will continue to grow, but at a slower pace than in past years. Maui rebuilding and the incremental return of international travelers will support tourism, helping to offset a moderate pullback in the US mainland market. Construction will continue to be a source of strength, even as overall job and income growth decelerate.… Read More
Unclaimed: Over $15 million in Tax Credits for Low Income Households April 29, 2024 By Dylan T. Moore (UHERO) & Baybars Karacaovali (Office of Tax Research and Planning, Hawai'i Department of Taxation) In 2021, low-income households in Hawaii were eligible for about $42 million through the state’s refundable food/excise income tax credit. But over one third—or $15.3 million—of this money went unclaimed. These estimates come from a new analysis… Read More
Wealth by Association? How Social Networks Drive Inequality in Hawaii April 25, 2024 Studies show that economic connectedness, a poor individual’s share of wealthy friends, significantly impacts economic mobility. Hawaii ranks highly in this metric compared to other states, but disparities exist in local schools. Private high schools have much higher economic connectedness than public schools, driven mainly by students' exposure to wealthy peers. To improve connectedness, policymakers… Read More
UHERO’s Byron Gangnes to be featured at HEA webinar March 20, 2024 On Thursday, March 28, UHERO's Byron Gangnes will join First Hawaiian Bank's Steve Rodgers in a webinar hosted by the Hawaii Economic Association to discuss the macroeconomic outlook, monetary policy, and post-pandemic changes to the economy. Paul Brewbaker will moderate. Click here to learn more and register for the event. Read More
The Gender Pay Gap in Hawaii March 12, 2024 By Rachel Inafuku In recognition of International Women's Day, which was recently celebrated on March 8, UHERO wishes to underscore the importance of women in the workforce by highlighting research on the gender pay gap in Hawaii that was presented in our latest forecast report. Please keep an eye out for forthcoming research that explores… Read More
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Near-term slowing expected as pandemic recovery ends February 23, 2024 Hawaii’s economy has been sustained by a resilient US and the gradual return of international visitors. With the Islands’ post-pandemic recovery now largely complete, the economy will downshift this year, and support for growth will increasingly come from local sources, including a robust construction sector that will be bolstered by Maui rebuilding. On the Valley… Read More
The supply side: AI, immigration, and non-inflationary growth February 21, 2024 By Byron Gangnes Home from last week’s National Association for Business Economics Policy Conference in Washington DC. Not surprisingly, many of the sessions ended up touching on some aspects of artificial intelligence (AI). Back to this in a minute. But one topic that showed up in several sessions was how the supply side of the… Read More