Recovery has begun in the United States and global economies. The US recovery is likely to be anemic by historical standards, raising the possibility that additional stimulus may be desirable. The President and Democrats in Congress have called for a “jobs bill,” and the Federal Reserve has demonstrated that it has a flexible toolkit for providing additional liquidity if deemed appropriate. The possible need for such stimulus will come up against the reality of an expanding public debt on the one hand, and inflationary concerns on the other. In this paper, I use simulations of the IHS Global Insight Model to assess the potential impact on the recovery path of alternative macro policies.
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March 21, 2024
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