Economy
Could the markets be right about coming Fed rate cuts?
By Byron Gangnes There is a marked difference between what Fed officials expect about their likely rate cuts this year and what the financial markets expect. According to the median estimate of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members at their December 2023 meeting, three quarter-point cuts in the federal funds rate are likely this year. […]
Read MoreEconomic Impact of the Natural Energy Laboratory Hawaii Authority Tenants on the State of Hawaii in 2022
NELHA contracted the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO) to estimate its economic impact on the State of Hawaii. Specifically, this research determined NELHA’s contribution to local business sales, employee earnings, tax revenues, and number of jobs in Hawaii from the expenditures of its tenants in 2022. To estimate expenditures made by NELHA tenants […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: State facing headwinds as Maui recovery begins
Hawaii’s economy has been resilient in the face of weakening US and global economies, high interest rates, and the glacial return of Japanese travelers. Deceleration in key visitor markets will produce slower growth in 2024. But, absent a US recession, moderate gains will resume in 2025. While economic fallout from the Maui wildfires has been […]
Read MoreEcological Economics and the Circular Economy
By Kimberly Burnett, James Roumasset, and Christopher Wada The Circular Economy In 1969, Belgian industrial designers Paul Jorion and Jacques Braijt proposed the circular concept of manufacturing products from recycled materials as opposed to the “linear” concept of producing them from mined or harvested raw materials and discarding the corresponding waste. The idea has gained […]
Read MoreWhen is economic growth too strong?
By Byron Gangnes To most of us, faster economic growth is a good thing. It reduces unemployment, raises profits and wages, and generates healthier government fiscal situations. (Of course, some might worry about the pressures of rapid growth on the environment.) But the Federal Reserve is concerned that continued strong growth in the US economy […]
Read MoreSmall Business Survey
The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO) has been contracted by the City and County of Honolulu to assist with better understanding the needs, community connections, and key elements for success among small businesses. Results from this survey will help the city allocate resources to better support the business community. We would appreciate if […]
Read MoreThe Nature, Causes, and Consequences of Student Deselection and Criminalization
By Katherine Irwin and James Roumasset1 A central principle of public economics is that the government should correct market failures. For example, when a firm’s pollution imposes social cost on society—an externality—the market fails to provide an efficient allocation of resources. The externality can be corrected by forcing the firm to pay for the cost […]
Read MoreNo credit card binge, but burdens are rising
By Byron Gangnes Credit card balances broke the $1 trillion mark recently, but their share of disposable income remains moderate by historical standards. And as the figure below also shows, they have risen only to pre-pandemic levels when expressed in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. There’s no debt binge out there. But interest rates have risen considerably […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Wildfires deliver heavy blow to Maui economy
The tragic Maui wildfires have inflicted deep pain and loss on the affected communities, and sorrow among all of Hawaii’s residents. There are also economic costs for the county and the state as a whole, many of which will last well into the future. In our first forecast since the fires, we assess the implications […]
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