Economy
Global Economic Forecast: Crisis Contagion Spreads Global Recession
The unfolding financial crisis will cause the deepest slowdown of global growth in many years. In 2009, the rich world will be in recession, and developing economies will suffer a sharp reduction in growth rates. The anticipated depth and duration of recession in the U.S. and Japan will present additional challenges for Hawai’i’s ailing visitor […]
Read MoreEconomic Impacts of E. Coqui frogs in Hawaii
Hawaii’s geographical isolation has resulted in the development of unique and fragile ecosystems in which the arrival of a new species may create dramatic changes in the ecology, and now the economy, of the islands. Successful establishment rates for new species before the arrival of humans in the early 1st millennium AD may have been […]
Read MoreSpecial Report: Maui Construction Jobs Down 12% since March
The momentum created in Maui’s construction sector by soaring median home and condo prices, inexpensive financing, and multiple luxury resort developments has dissipated over the past two years. With the deepening financial crisis and a substantially weaker housing market, employment in the contracting sector on Maui has taken a tumble this year. Because construction has […]
Read MoreUHERO and the Hawaii Economic Association Present PresiNomics
Join UH economists for an informal discussion of McCain and Obama’s views on tax policy, health care, energy policy, the ongoing financial crisis and more.October 22, 2008 * 5:30- 8:30 PMHonolulu Design Center
Read MoreResource management for Sustainable Development of Island Economies
What is the role of resource management in sustaining competitiveness for island economies such as the Republic of the Philippines and Hawaii? We review the history of thought on sustainable resource management and sustainable development and then turn to the threats to sustainability from the resource curse and the parallel curse of paradise. We show how the resource curse […]
Read MoreHawai’i Quarterly Forecast Update: A Hard Fall for Hawai’i Tourism
The U.S. downturn and record-high oil prices have taken a big bite out of the Hawai’i tourism industry. Visitor arrivals will tumble 9% this year, the biggest annual decline since 2001. Because of deteriorating conditions for the U.S., Japanese and global economies, we now believe that a visitor industry recovery will not begin until 2010. […]
Read MoreQuarterly Hawai’i Forecast Update: Oil Surge Fuels Inflation, Threatens Deeper Downturn
Prospects for the Hawai’i economy have worsened significantly since our March Annual Hawai’i Forecast. The failures of ATA and Aloha airlines, the loss of a second NCL cruise ship, and the dramatic surge in oil prices will damage a local economy that was already feeling the effects of the national downturn.
Read MoreCounty Economic Forecast: Zero Growth Expected Statewide
To varying degrees, each of the four counties has shared in the state’s broad pattern of slowing over the past several years, a process that became more pronounced in 2007. This synchronized slowing is no mistake, reflecting broad statewide—and even global—slowing trends in construction, visitor spending and overall economic activity. There are similarly common adverse […]
Read MoreFinancial Integration in the Pacific Basin Region: RIP by PANIC Attack?
We exploit advances in panel data econometrics to test whether real interest parity holds in the Pacific Basin region. We test for a unit root in the difference between either the US, Japanese or Euro area real interest rate and the real interest rates from a panel of eleven Pacific Basin economies. Unlike extant studies […]
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