Economy
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Promise and Peril for the Hawaii Economy
Recent developments bring both promise and peril for Hawaii. Tourism prospects are positive, despite the delayed Japanese market recovery. Construction activity will remain high, and inflation is receding rapidly, setting the stage for real income gains. On the flip side, the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes and liquidity problems sparked by recent bank failures threaten the […]
Read MoreWhen banks go boom: Footloose deposits, regulatory failure, and the SVB crisis
By Byron Gangnes Banking can be a risky business. A bank keeps only a fraction of its deposits as cash reserves, turning the rest into income-earning assets, primarily loans, but also federal government bonds and other securities. Fractional reserve banking, which goes back at least to the 17th century, provides a source of funding for […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Hawaiʻi’s Soft Landing Still in the Cards
Our Hawaiʻi outlook continues to see economic slowing but no recession. While international tourism will continue to recover, domestic travel will soften as the US economy contracts later this year. Combined with high interest rates and prices, this will cause local growth to weaken through the first half of 2024. The cooling of inflation in […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaii: Global war on inflation will hinder Hawaii growth
The global outlook continues to darken, but prospects for Hawaii remain largely unchanged from our last report. Rising interest rates, dwindling pandemic era savings, and the coming US downturn will cause a pause in growth next year. But the belated recovery of the Japanese visitor market and surging public sector construction will prevent a recession […]
Read MorePublication: The effects of the pandemic on the economy of Hawaii
Abstract: Hawaii was vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic due to its reliance on tourism. This article analyzes the pandemic’s economic impact in Hawaii by comparing outcomes with the pre-pandemic forecast. We explain why Hawaii’s experience differed from other states, suggest reasons for a slow recovery, and discuss the pandemic’s lasting effects. Bond-Smith, Steven, and Peter […]
Read MoreRethinking HTA’s “Regenerative Tourism Fee”
By James Mak and Robert D. Ebel Hawaii Tourism Authority’s (HTA) Oahu Destination Management Action Plan (DMAP) proposes to “Establish a ‘Regenerative Tourism Fee’ (RTF) that directly supports programs to regenerate Hawaii’s resources, protect natural resources, and address unfunded conservation liabilities.” The proposed RTF is more commonly referred to as a “visitor green fee.” The […]
Read MoreHawai‘i Tourism in Search of the Promised Land
By Paul Brewbaker, Frank Haas and James Mak Public pressure has been mounting on the Hawai‘i Tourism Authority (HTA) to shift its focus from mainly marketing to destination management to mitigate tourism’s negative impacts on the community. HTA’s 2020-2025 Strategic Plan states that “This is the first strategic plan developed while HTA is re-balancing our […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaii: US recession will weigh on Hawaii’s recovery
The economic horizon has darkened since our last forecast. The global economy has slowed sharply, and the US is headed for a mild recession in the first half of next year. Hawaii may well escape overall net job losses, thanks to the recovery of Japanese travel that is now finally underway. But high inflation, higher […]
Read MoreSumner La Croix awarded the Best Paper of 2021 by Economic Record
A paper by UHERO’s Sumner La Croix, “Australia’s Forgotten Copper Mining Boom: Understanding How South Australia Avoided Dutch Disease” was awarded the Best Paper of 2021 by the journal Economic Record. In an announcement, the selection panel stated, “While there were many excellent papers, the committee was of the view that this paper was a […]
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