Economy
Hawaii’s long-term economic recovery after COVID-19
By Steven Bond-Smith The following is adapted from a presentation I recently gave at the Western Regional Science Association meetings on the Big Island. My research focuses on the implications of theoretical regional economic models for small and isolated places, like Hawaii. These are places where distance matters such that they are generally unable to […]
Read MoreKaua’i County’s Economic Outlook Unveiled: UHERO Study Highlights Resilience and Future Challenges
The University of Hawai‘i Economic Research Organization (UHERO) is proud to announce the publication of a Kaua‘i County-focused Economic Outlook, providing crucial insights into the economic landscape of the region for the first time since 2019. Commissioned by the County of Kaua‘i’s Office of Economic Development (OED), UHERO’s comprehensive study aimed to illuminate key sectors, […]
Read MoreIs inflation going the Fed’s way? Depends where you’re looking.
By Byron Gangnes The Fed’s war on inflation has been underway for more than a year. Interest rates have been driven up sharply, with consequences for the macroeconomic outlook—will the economy just slow or drop into a steep recession—but also for households and businesses right now. Many families have been priced out of the housing […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Promise and Peril for the Hawaii Economy
Recent developments bring both promise and peril for Hawaii. Tourism prospects are positive, despite the delayed Japanese market recovery. Construction activity will remain high, and inflation is receding rapidly, setting the stage for real income gains. On the flip side, the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes and liquidity problems sparked by recent bank failures threaten the […]
Read MoreWhen banks go boom: Footloose deposits, regulatory failure, and the SVB crisis
By Byron Gangnes Banking can be a risky business. A bank keeps only a fraction of its deposits as cash reserves, turning the rest into income-earning assets, primarily loans, but also federal government bonds and other securities. Fractional reserve banking, which goes back at least to the 17th century, provides a source of funding for […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Hawaiʻi’s Soft Landing Still in the Cards
Our Hawaiʻi outlook continues to see economic slowing but no recession. While international tourism will continue to recover, domestic travel will soften as the US economy contracts later this year. Combined with high interest rates and prices, this will cause local growth to weaken through the first half of 2024. The cooling of inflation in […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaii: Global war on inflation will hinder Hawaii growth
The global outlook continues to darken, but prospects for Hawaii remain largely unchanged from our last report. Rising interest rates, dwindling pandemic era savings, and the coming US downturn will cause a pause in growth next year. But the belated recovery of the Japanese visitor market and surging public sector construction will prevent a recession […]
Read MorePublication: The effects of the pandemic on the economy of Hawaii
Abstract: Hawaii was vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic due to its reliance on tourism. This article analyzes the pandemic’s economic impact in Hawaii by comparing outcomes with the pre-pandemic forecast. We explain why Hawaii’s experience differed from other states, suggest reasons for a slow recovery, and discuss the pandemic’s lasting effects. Bond-Smith, Steven, and Peter […]
Read MoreRethinking HTA’s “Regenerative Tourism Fee”
By James Mak and Robert D. Ebel Hawaii Tourism Authority’s (HTA) Oahu Destination Management Action Plan (DMAP) proposes to “Establish a ‘Regenerative Tourism Fee’ (RTF) that directly supports programs to regenerate Hawaii’s resources, protect natural resources, and address unfunded conservation liabilities.” The proposed RTF is more commonly referred to as a “visitor green fee.” The […]
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