Economy
After the Maui wildfires: The road ahead.
By Steven Bond-Smith, Daniela Bond-Smith, Carl Bonham, Leah Bremer, Kim Burnett, Makena Coffman, Peter Fuleky, Byron Gangnes, Rachel Inafuku, Ruben Juarez, Sumner La Croix, Colin Moore, Dylan Moore, Nori Tarui, Justin Tyndall, and Chris Wada The immediate recovery efforts from the devastating Maui wildfires continue, and at UHERO we share our community’s anguish over the […]
Read MoreAre stock investors crazy?
By Byron Gangnes Stock prices are at a very high level, and yet investors have not pulled back. What gives? How should we think about stock market values? In the long run, the price of a share of common stock should depend on the expected future stream of company earnings. Even growth stocks—which tend to […]
Read MoreHow high are interest rates really?
By Byron Gangnes The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates sharply over the past fifteen months, and Fed officials have signaled that perhaps two more quarter point hikes are coming. How high are interest rates compared with past Fed tightening episodes? Are they high considering the state of the US economy? First, a little about […]
Read MorePublication: Diversifying Hawai‘i’s Specialized Economy: A Spatial Economic Perspective
Abstract: Specialization in tourism exposes the economy of Hawai‘i to external shocks that trigger collapses in tourist numbers. Furthermore, Hawai‘i’s economic growth has diminished for decades as the dominance of tourism has not generated productivity growth. In response, policy makers in Hawai‘i increasingly emphasize diversification. This article examines a spatial economics perspective to explain why […]
Read MoreHawaii’s long-term economic recovery after COVID-19
By Steven Bond-Smith The following is adapted from a presentation I recently gave at the Western Regional Science Association meetings on the Big Island. My research focuses on the implications of theoretical regional economic models for small and isolated places, like Hawaii. These are places where distance matters such that they are generally unable to […]
Read MoreKaua’i County’s Economic Outlook Unveiled: UHERO Study Highlights Resilience and Future Challenges
The University of Hawai‘i Economic Research Organization (UHERO) is proud to announce the publication of a Kaua‘i County-focused Economic Outlook, providing crucial insights into the economic landscape of the region for the first time since 2019. Commissioned by the County of Kaua‘i’s Office of Economic Development (OED), UHERO’s comprehensive study aimed to illuminate key sectors, […]
Read MoreIs inflation going the Fed’s way? Depends where you’re looking.
By Byron Gangnes The Fed’s war on inflation has been underway for more than a year. Interest rates have been driven up sharply, with consequences for the macroeconomic outlook—will the economy just slow or drop into a steep recession—but also for households and businesses right now. Many families have been priced out of the housing […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Promise and Peril for the Hawaii Economy
Recent developments bring both promise and peril for Hawaii. Tourism prospects are positive, despite the delayed Japanese market recovery. Construction activity will remain high, and inflation is receding rapidly, setting the stage for real income gains. On the flip side, the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes and liquidity problems sparked by recent bank failures threaten the […]
Read MoreWhen banks go boom: Footloose deposits, regulatory failure, and the SVB crisis
By Byron Gangnes Banking can be a risky business. A bank keeps only a fraction of its deposits as cash reserves, turning the rest into income-earning assets, primarily loans, but also federal government bonds and other securities. Fractional reserve banking, which goes back at least to the 17th century, provides a source of funding for […]
Read More