Forecasts
UHERO Forecasts provide the Hawaii community with analysis of economic trends in the State and the Asia-Pacific region.
UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaii: Foreign visitors will provide lift, but risks have multiplied
Hawaii’s recovery has resumed now that the Delta and Omicron waves are behind us. Once the Asian COVID-19 wave recedes, the long-awaited return of international visitors will begin later this spring. Hawaii’s delayed recovery from the pandemic means that we expect moderately strong growth, despite clearly deteriorating conditions in the US and global economies. The […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaii: With Omicron in the rearview mirror, a clearer road ahead?
The two COVID-19 waves since last summer caused a pullback in Hawaii tourism and a pause in labor market recovery. Visitor arrivals are now picking up and broader growth is resuming. The expected transition of the virus to an endemic disease will enable the return of international visitors. Considerable risks remain, including COVID-19 surprises, Fed […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaii: Recovery resumes, but Omicron looms
Economic recovery resumed with the end of Hawaii’s COVID-19 wave. Now Omicron is a new threat. Renewed international travel restrictions have reduced the near-term visitor outlook, but the eventual return of foreign tourists in 2022 will enable a broader industry upturn. Moderate job gains will continue, although labor shortages, the end of pandemic support, and […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaii: Delta wave swamps tourism, but return to recovery expected
Hawaii’s recovery has experienced a setback with the recent surge in COVID-19. Record virus numbers and preventive policy responses have caused an abrupt tourism pullback and are signalling a near-term decline in overall economic activity. While the Delta wave may now have turned the corner, we are in for a period of weakness before growth […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaii: Vaccinations and US Strength Drive Upgraded Hawaii Forecast
Economic conditions in Hawaii are improving. The dominant US visitor market has outperformed expectations, and built-up savings and pent-up demand will drive mainland arrivals to near-normal levels in coming months. International markets will be much slower to recover. Local employment gains have been limited so far, but the vaccine rollout in Hawaii and nationally sets […]
Read MoreUHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaii: More Substantial Recovery in Sight
Hawaii is struggling to emerge from the COVID-19 downturn, but the recovery is poised to accelerate. Falling virus counts and vaccination progress set the stage for a strengthening of tourism and the broader economy. The pandemic has damaged businesses and lower-income households, and full recovery remains several years down the road.
Read MoreAnnual Hawaii Forecast With Global Outlook: Mainland COVID-19 surge means a bleak winter, but vaccines promise 2021 growth
The Hawaii economy began to recover from the COVID-19 downturn by the end of the second quarter, but subsequent global waves of the pandemic have disrupted economic progress. The ongoing mainland virus surge and the State’s tightened quarantine rules will weigh on near-term recovery, while news of coming vaccines fundamentally improves growth prospects for the […]
Read MoreUHERO State Forecast Update: Hawaii in early stages of recovery, then a setback
Hawaii’s COVID-19 resurgence put the brakes on a very tentative economic recovery. The further delay of the visitor industry restart and renewed strict social distancing on Oahu have hit both tourism and locally-focused businesses. Our baseline forecast now sees meaningful economic recovery delayed until the middle of next year, and an attenuated recovery period thereafter.
Read MoreUHERO Forecast with Scenario Analysis: Battered by COVID-19, Hawaii begins to reopen
The novel coronavirus crisis hit Hawaii with devastating effect. The abrupt economic shut-down, while successful in limiting the virus’s spread, has produced by far our sharpest and deepest economic contraction. But reopening has now commenced. The question is what that reopening will look like, how long it will take, and what the legacy of COVID-19 […]
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