Justin Tyndall

UHERO Assistant Specialist and Assistant Professor of Economics

Education

University of British Columbia, Sauder School of Business, PhD – Urban Land Economics 2019

New York University, Wagner School of Public Service, Master of Urban Planning 2014

University of Victoria, MA – Economics 2012

University of British Columbia, BA – Economics 2011

Research Interests

Urban Economics, transportation, and housing policy

 

Map of Safegraph data

Are Hawai’i Residents Staying at Home?

By Justin Tyndall and Joshua Hu Staying at home and avoiding crowded spaces is an important way for residents to help contain the spread of …

Annual net migration to Hawai'i 2018

Aloha ‘Oe: Population Migration Between Hawaii and the U.S. Mainland

By James Mak and Justin Tyndall The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that, between July 1, 2018 and July 1, 2019, Hawaii’s population decreased by 4,721. …

Matsumoto's shave ice

Unemployment and Underemployment in Hawaii: A Troubling Picture

By James Mak, Justin Tyndall and Carl Bonham In 2019 Hawaii recorded one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country at 2.8%. Only five …

Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on global fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions

Nori Tarui

Abstract

We assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on global fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions over the two-year horizon 2020Q1-2021Q4. We apply a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model, which captures complex spatial-temporal interdependencies across countries associated with the international propagation of economic impact due to the virus spread. The model makes use of a unique quarterly data set of coal, natural gas, and oil consumption, output, exchange rates and equity prices, including global fossil fuel prices for 32 major CO2 emitting countries in 1984-2019. We produce forecasts of coal, natural gas and oil consumption, conditional on GDP growth scenarios based on alternative IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts that were made before and after the outbreak. We also simulate the effect of a relative price change in fossil fuels, due to global scale carbon pricing, on consumption and output. Our results predict fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions to return to their pre-crisis levels, and even exceed them, within the two-year horizon despite the large reductions in the first quarter following the outbreak. Our forecasts anticipate more robust growth for emerging than for advanced economies. The model predicts recovery to the pre-crisis levels even if another wave of pandemic occurs within a year. Our counterfactual carbon pricing scenario indicates that an increase in coal prices is expected to have a smaller impact on GDP than on fossil fuel consumption. Thus, the COVID-19 pandemic would not provide countries with a strong reason to delay climate change mitigation efforts.