1. Skip to navigation
  2. Skip to content
  3. Skip to sidebar

Products: Hawaii's Economy

Keep up to date with the latest UHERO products.

RECENT POSTS

Identifying priority watershed management areas for groundwater recharge protection on Hawai‘i Island

Identifying priority watershed management areas for groundwater recharge protection on Hawai‘i Island

Identifying priority watershed management areas for groundwater recharge protection on Hawai‘i Island

Identifying priority watershed management areas for groundwater recharge protection on Hawai‘i Island

Identifying priority watershed management areas for groundwater recharge protection on Hawai‘i Island

Identifying priority watershed management areas for groundwater recharge protection on Hawai‘i Island

Charting a New Fiscal Course for Hawaii: A Fiscal Architecture Approach

Charting a New Fiscal Course for Hawaii: A Fiscal Architecture Approach

Charting a New Fiscal Course for Hawaii: A Fiscal Architecture Approach

Annual Hawaii Forecast with Global Outlook: After a Cloudy 2019, New Year Looks a Bit Brighter


--> */?>
CATEGORIES

ALL CATEGORIES


Forecasts

Media

UHERO Briefs

Annual Reports

> Hawaii's Economy

Hawaii's Environment

Hawaii's People

Project Environment

UHERO Working Papers

Arik, Aida

Bonham, Carl

Bremer, Leah

Brucal, Arlan

Burnett, Kimberly

Cintina, Inna

Coffman, Makena

Endress, Lee

Energy Policy & Planning Group

Environmental Valuation

Food and Agriculture

Fripp, Matthias

Fuleky, Peter

Gangnes, Byron

Garboden, Philip

Governing Green Power

Halliday, Timothy

Hirashima, Ashley

Housing

Invasive Species

Jones, James

Kato, Andrew

Konan, Denise

Kwak, Sally

LaCroix, Sumner

Lee, Sang-Hyop

Leung, PingSun

Love, Inessa

Lynham, John

Mak, James

Olney, Will

Page, Jonathan

Presentations

Project UH

Roberts, Michael

Roumasset, James

Russo, Gerard

Sustainability

Tarui, Nori

UHERO Reports

Wada, Christopher

Water Resources

Wee, Sherilyn


ARCHIVE

February 2020

January 2019

January 2018

February 2017

January 2016

January 2015

January 2014

July 2013

April 2012

February 2011

June 2010

April 2009

May 2008

June 2007

February 2006

November 2005

March 2004

July 2003

October 2002

May 2001

April 2000

December 1999

February 1998

April 1997

October 1996

March 1995


*/?>

Charting a New Fiscal Course for Hawaii: A Fiscal Architecture Approach

The Hawai’i Executive Conference (HEC)’s recent report, Troubled Waters: Charting a New Fiscal Course For Hawaii, makes a compelling case for the Hawaii community to focus on “the future fiscal capacity of Hawaii state and local governments.” HEC examines three public expenditure challenges totaling $88.4 billion that residents will likely face over the next thirty years: (i) addressing public employee pension and retire health obligations ($25.7 billion) ; (ii) building and maintaining a 21st century physical infrastructure ($47.4 billion); and (iii) preparing for natural disasters, sea level rise and climate change ($15.3 billion).

UHERO Brief

 


Annual Hawaii Forecast with Global Outlook: After a Cloudy 2019, New Year Looks a Bit Brighter

Hawaii’s economy has entered a soft patch. Falling real visitor spending and a declining population have suppressed demand and halted growth in nonfarm payrolls. But the construction industry is holding up, and the number of visitor arrivals continues to grow. Following this year’s weakness, we expect some improvement in the external environment, which will help us edge back onto a positive, if restrained, growth path.

This executive summary is provided as a service to the public. For a complete analysis and detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO’s Forecast Project.

PUBLIC SUMMARYSUBSCRIBE

 

 


Hawaii Construction Forecast: Planned Projects Support Healthy Construction Outlook

Hawaii construction activity continues at a healthy pace, with a modest pickup over the past year. New and pending projects, particularly high-rise residential building on Oahu, will sustain construction employment near its current level for the next several years. Planned large-scale public sector projects will provide additional support. The primary risk to this forecast is a falloff in demand that could come from weakening local and global economic conditions.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

public summarysubscribe

 


UHERO State Forecast Update: Already weak, Hawaii’s prospects look increasingly dicey

Hawaii’s slowing has deepened in 2019. Two years of population decline have undercut demand in many sectors. While tourism is generating impressive visitor numbers, there has been a sharp pullback in international markets. Add to that the crackdown on Oahu home vacation rentals, and prospects for further tourism growth look poor. Construction remains a bright spot, at least for now. We expect Hawaii to tread water over the next few years, vulnerable to waves that could well pull us under.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

public summarysubscribe

 


UHERO State Forecast Update: Recent data confirm weaker growth

The past few months have brought more evidence of Hawaii slowing. The number of visitor days remains below last year’s peak, with more worrying signs from falling visitor spending. Job growth has largely stalled and income gains have receded. At best this represents a new normal for Hawaii.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

public summarysubscribe

 


UHERO Brief: Four Alternative Models for Regulating an Investor Owned Utility of the Future

How do you coerce a monopoly to act as if it were operating in a ruthlessly competitive industry? This is the billion-dollar question of Public Utilities Commissions (PUCs). It’s a tricky thing to do with a mixed history of success. And it’s getting trickier, especially here in Hawaiʻi, where renewable energy and so-called “distributed resources” (e.g. rooftop solar, residential batteries, smart appliances, electric vehicles) are changing the nature of the electricity system, managed by our own monopoly, Hawaiian Electric Company. Here, UHERO Fellow Michael Roberts summarizes four ideas for how to change the way we regulate Hawaiian Electric Company, and shares some preliminary thoughts about their strengths and weaknesses.

UHERO Brief

 


UHERO State Forecast Update: Economy slows markedly. Is more in store?

Hawaii’s economy ended 2018 on a poorer footing than 2017. Across a number of dimensions, the year saw a flattening out or outright decline in activity. Tourism challenges were not limited to the aftermath of flood and fire, but also reflected weakening in some key markets and a falloff in spending. At home, population growth has been negative for the past two years, weighing on demand. Deceleration is now well established in the Islands, posing significant downside risks to our forecast of continuing modest growth.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

public summarysubscribe

 


Charting a New Course For Hawai‘i Tourism

Despite a string of record visitor arrivals now totaling almost ten million annually, Hawai‘i tourism shows signs of trouble. Inflation-adjusted spending per visitor has trended downward. Diminishing economic contribution, eroding resident sentiment, and increasing congestion and stress on sites and attractions provide evidence that the current governance model is inadequate for effectively managing the increasingly complex issues facing Hawai‘i tourism.

UHERO Brief

 


Annual Hawaii Forecast with Asia-Pacific Outlook: Moderation Ahead as Business Cycle Matures

Hawaii’s economy remains on a favorable path, with record-high visitor numbers, record-low unemployment, and ongoing—if unimpressive—income gains. As expected, the economy’s rate of expansion has slowed as the business cycle has matured, and risks to the external environment have increased. But at present there are no signs of an imminent downturn. Instead, further growth at a restrained pace is the most likely outcome for the next few years at least.

This executive summary is provided as a service to the public. For a complete analysis and detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO’s Forecast Project.

PUBLIC SUMMARYSUBSCRIBE

 

 


Hawaii Construction Forecast: After Pullback, Construction Prospects Firm

Following two years of decline, the pace of building in Hawaii has stabilized. The value of construction permits is posting healthy gains across all sub-sectors this year, and projects either planned or in the pipeline will maintain construction activity near its current level through the end of the decade.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

public summarysubscribe

 


UHERO State Forecast Update: Hawaii's Growth Down, But Not Out

Hawaii’s expansion has slowed along several dimensions. On top of the painful human toll, volcanic activity and flooding have dealt a setback to tourism. The construction sector has continued to drop back from its 2016 peak, and job growth has slowed to a near-stop. Still, the fundamentals look favorable. Global tourism continues to power forward, and there remains a healthy pipeline of construction work. And even with the recent labor market weakness, Hawaii continues to enjoy its lowest unemployment in many years.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

public summarysubscribe

 


The Conversation: Sumner La Croix on the Future of Tourism

Sumner La Croix appears on The Conversation to discuss the future of Hawaii's tourism industry.

LISTEN


UHERO County Forecast: Healthy county economies face growing pains

Hawaii’s four counties are enjoying robust economic conditions and look set for continued growth. Tourism keeps surprising to the upside, even as visitor numbers strain infrastructure and communities. Record low unemployment will limit job growth but bring welcome income gains. Kauai flooding and the Kilauea eruption remind us that the counties remain vulnerable to adverse developments, whether at home or beyond our shores.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

PUBLIC SUMMARYSUBSCRIBE

 


UHERO State Forecast Update: Ready or not, Hawaii is set for more growth

Now in its ninth year, Hawaii’s expansion shows no signs of letting up. Tourism has surged again in the first part of 2018, extending one of the longest periods of sustained visitor growth. Construction, while volatile month to month, also remains on a high plateau. The long run of strong demand has created very tight labor markets, and it has imposed burdens on infrastructure and some communities. These constraints will slow, but not stop, growth over the next few years.

This analysis and near-term forecast is available as a service to the public. For more detailed multi-year forecasts, subscribe to UHERO's Forecast Project.

public summarysubscribe

 


Rethinking Hawaii Tourism: Time to Shift from Marketing to Managing Tourism?

We know from Hawaii Tourism Authority (HTA) resident surveys that Hawaii residents perceive tourism is our economic lifeline, but it is also a cause of significant number of problems in our lives. Even though most respondents still think tourism brings more benefits than costs to our state, the percent of those who think otherwise has been rising for some time. That perception is supported by Paul Brewbaker’s presentation today. Paul’s main point (backed by striking charts) is that tourism’s economic benefits have not risen while its negative social costs to residents have been rising steadily. I made the same observation in my UHERO Brief, “Sustainable Tourism Development and Overtourism,” November 15, 2017. As tourism continues to set “records”, according to HTA, the negative social costs of tourism will become more burdensome relative to tourism’s benefits.

This brief was prepared for the Hawaii Economic Association panel, Rethinking Hawaii Tourism: 21st Century Solutions for 21st Century Challenges, with Frank Haas, Paul Brewbaker and John Knox.

Revised: Posted May 16, 2018

UHERO Brief

 


Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9