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Nowcasting the Trajectory of the COVID-19 Recovery

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I develop a weekly coincident index of economic activity in the State of Hawaii. The purpose of the index is to nowcast the recovery from the COVID-19 induced downturn. The index is the first principal component extracted from 18 daily and weekly state-level time series, it captures about 80% of the variation in the sample, it is available with a four-day lag, and it leads the changes in nonfarm payrolls and the Philadelphia Fed coincident index.

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