Peter Fuleky

Figure 2: Time plot of the index (black) and nonfarm payrolls and the Philadelphia Fed coincident index (red).

Nowcasting the Trajectory of the COVID-19 Recovery:
The Weekly UHERO Economic Pulse

By Peter Fuleky COVID-19 has brought the longest period of economic expansion in modern history …

Nowcasting the Trajectory of the COVID-19 Recovery

I develop a weekly coincident index of economic activity in the State of Hawaii. The …

Hawaii State Senate Floor

Multipliers and the effectiveness of government policies

By Byron Gangnes, Rachel Inafuku, and Peter Fuleky The economic shutdown in Hawaii and elsewhere …

Honolulu cityscape

COVID-19: Developing Economic Recovery Scenarios for Hawaii

By Carl Bonham, Peter Fuleky, and Byron Gangnes A significant part of Hawaii’s economy has …

UH News: UHERO fills critical need, especially during crisis


Interim Forecast Update: Hawaii’s Economy is Shut Down to Deal with COVID-19

This is UHERO’s second interim forecast update to address dramatic recent developments associated with the …

Empty restaurant

The Agony of Restaurant Workers

Social distancing is necessary to slow the spread of COVID-19, but has significant economic impacts, hitting dine-in eateries disproportionately hard.

Interim Forecast Update: COVID-19 Will Impose Significant Economic Impacts in Hawaii

The spread of the novel coronavirus and recent visitor falloff lead us to lower sharply …

Peter Fuleky and Philip Garboden Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data

Just Published: “Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data”

By Peter Fuleky Big data analysis has a long history in macroeconomics. In 1937, National …