UHERO Working Papers
The effects of the pandemic on the economy of Hawaii
WORKING PAPERS ARE PRELIMINARY MATERIALS CIRCULATED TO STIMULATE DISCUSSION AND CRITICAL COMMENT. WHILE WORKING PAPERS BENEFIT FROM ACTIVE UHERO DISCUSSION, THEY HAVE NOT UNDERGONE FORMAL ACADEMIC PEER REVIEW.
The findings and recommendations are those of the author(s) and do not reflect the views or official positions of UHERO, the University of Hawai’i, or any funding or supporting organization.
The economy of Hawaii was extremely vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic due to its heavy reliance on tourism. This article is a thorough survey of issues affecting a tourism-dependent open economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. We provide a comprehensive analysis of the pandemic’s economic impact in Hawaii by comparing the actual outcomes during the affected period with the pre-pandemic forecast. We explain why Hawaii’s experience differed from other states, suggest reasons for a slow recovery, and discuss the pandemic’s lasting effects in the Islands. We also describe changes in the economic forecasting process necessitated by the increase in uncertainty.