Economy

Small Business Survey

October 19, 2023

The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO) has been contracted by the City and County of Honolulu to assist with better understanding the needs, local connections, and key elements for success among small businesses. Results from this survey will help the city allocate resources to better support the businesses. We would appreciate if you […]

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The Nature, Causes, and Consequences of Student Deselection and Criminalization

October 9, 2023

By Katherine Irwin and James Roumasset1 A central principle of public economics is that the government should correct market failures. For example, when a firm’s pollution imposes social cost on society—an externality—the market fails to provide an efficient allocation of resources. The externality can be corrected by forcing the firm to pay for the cost […]

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No credit card binge, but burdens are rising

September 28, 2023

By Byron Gangnes Credit card balances broke the $1 trillion mark recently, but their share of disposable income remains moderate by historical standards. And as the figure below also shows, they have risen only to pre-pandemic levels when expressed in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. There’s no debt binge out there. But interest rates have risen considerably […]

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UHERO Forecast for the State of Hawaiʻi: Wildfires deliver heavy blow to Maui economy

September 22, 2023

The tragic Maui wildfires have inflicted deep pain and loss on the affected communities, and sorrow among all of Hawaii’s residents. There are also economic costs for the county and the state as a whole, many of which will last well into the future. In our first forecast since the fires, we assess the implications […]

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Economic Perspective of Maui’s Devastating Wildfires

September 8, 2023

By James Mak, Paul Brewbaker, and Frank Haas Lahaina is a very special place with so much deep, rich history. Over time, it’s evolved. It’s been many things. It’s been the capital of the Hawaiian Kingdom. It’s been home base for generations of Maui chiefs. It’s been a center of commerce in whaling. It’s been […]

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Jobless claims reveal staggering employment cost of Maui wildfires

September 7, 2023

By Byron Gangnes Jobless claims for the week ending September 2 have been released. At the national level, new claims ticked down for the fourth straight week, but the four-week trailing average remains in line with claim levels prior to the pandemic. The claims data do not materially change the US labor market picture: Slower […]

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After the Maui wildfires: The road ahead.

August 31, 2023

By Steven Bond-Smith, Daniela Bond-Smith, Carl Bonham, Leah Bremer, Kim Burnett, Makena Coffman, Peter Fuleky, Byron Gangnes, Rachel Inafuku, Ruben Juarez, Sumner La Croix, Colin Moore, Dylan Moore, Nori Tarui, Justin Tyndall, and Chris Wada The immediate recovery efforts from the devastating Maui wildfires continue, and at UHERO we share our community’s anguish over the […]

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Are stock investors crazy?

July 21, 2023

By Byron Gangnes Stock prices are at a very high level, and yet investors have not pulled back. What gives? How should we think about stock market values? In the long run, the price of a share of common stock should depend on the expected future stream of company earnings. Even growth stocks—which tend to […]

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How high are interest rates really?

July 13, 2023

By Byron Gangnes The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates sharply over the past fifteen months, and Fed officials have signaled that perhaps two more quarter point hikes are coming. How high are interest rates compared with past Fed tightening episodes? Are they high considering the state of the US economy? First, a little about […]

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