Hawaii’s economic outlook has taken a decisive turn for the worse, as expansive federal policy shifts look poised to tip the local economy into a mild recession. Sharp increases in US import tariffs, sweeping federal layoffs, and volatile fiscal and immigration policies are undermining consumer confidence, raising inflation expectations, and worsening the business outlook—both nationally and in Hawaii’s visitor-dependent economy.
UHERO Assistant Professor Steven Bond-Smith provides a summary of the 2025 second quarter forecast report in this episode of “UHERO Focus.”