Byron Gangnes

After the Maui wildfires: The road ahead.

By Steven Bond-Smith, Daniela Bond-Smith, Carl Bonham, Leah Bremer, Kim Burnett, Makena Coffman, Peter Fuleky, Byron Gangnes, Rachel Inafuku, Ruben Juarez, Sumner La Croix, Colin Moore, Dylan Moore, Nori Tarui, Justin Tyndall, and Chris Wada The immediate recovery efforts from the devastating Maui wildfires continue, and at UHERO we share our community’s anguish over the […]

Are stock investors crazy?

By Byron Gangnes Stock prices are at a very high level, and yet investors have not pulled back. What gives? How should we think about stock market values? In the long run, the price of a share of common stock should depend on the expected future stream of company earnings. Even growth stocks—which tend to […]

How high are interest rates really?

By Byron Gangnes The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates sharply over the past fifteen months, and Fed officials have signaled that perhaps two more quarter point hikes are coming. How high are interest rates compared with past Fed tightening episodes? Are they high considering the state of the US economy? First, a little about […]

Is inflation going the Fed’s way? Depends where you’re looking.

By Byron Gangnes The Fed’s war on inflation has been underway for more than a year. Interest rates have been driven up sharply, with consequences for the macroeconomic outlook—will the economy just slow or drop into a steep recession—but also for households and businesses right now. Many families have been priced out of the housing […]

When banks go boom: Footloose deposits, regulatory failure, and the SVB crisis

By Byron Gangnes Banking can be a risky business. A bank keeps only a fraction of its deposits as cash reserves, turning the rest into income-earning assets, primarily loans, but also federal government bonds and other securities. Fractional reserve banking, which goes back at least to the 17th century, provides a source of funding for […]

COVID-19 infections, vaccines, and economic recovery

By Carl Bonham, Peter Fuleky, Byron Gangnes, and Justin Tyndall A year ago Hawaii was operating under its first COVID-19 Stay at Home Order. As business activity contracted, the state quickly shed more than 150,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate jumped from 2% to 22%. Today there is hope that the devastation brought by the […]

Multipliers and the effectiveness of government policies

By Byron Gangnes, Rachel Inafuku, and Peter Fuleky The economic shutdown in Hawaii and elsewhere due to the novel coronavirus has led to sharp reductions in employment and private spending, as well as historically large government fiscal responses. Analysis of the effects of changes in government spending and employment policies requires estimates of how much […]

COVID-19: Developing Economic Recovery Scenarios for Hawaii

By Carl Bonham, Peter Fuleky, and Byron Gangnes A significant part of Hawaii’s economy has effectively been shut down to slow the spread of the coronavirus in the Islands. The mandatory fourteen-day self-quarantine requirement for arriving visitors and residents has largely put a stop to tourism. And the stay-at-home order for all non-essential workers that […]

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