Economy

Nowcasting the Trajectory of the COVID-19 Recovery:
The Weekly UHERO Economic Pulse

By Peter Fuleky COVID-19 has brought the longest period of economic expansion in modern history to an abrupt halt. The pace and magnitude of decline in economic activity has been unprecedented, and the recovery ahead will likely be drawn-out and uneven. Making good business and public policy decisions in such a rapidly-changing environment requires data […]

Survey results for woman owned businesses

By Philip Garboden and Isabelle Picciotto An update to the original survey results: https://uhero.hawaii.edu/survey-update-shows-widespread-hardship-for-local-businesses/ These tables divide our findings by whether or not the business is 51% or more woman owned. With a few exceptions, the bulk of the evidence suggests that women owned business have been harder hit than those owned by men. As […]

Survey update shows widespread hardship for local businesses

By Philip Garboden and Isabelle Picciotto Additional results for woman owned businesses: https://uhero.hawaii.edu/survey-results-for-woman-owned-businesses/ Three months ago, UHERO released findings from its initial survey of businesses in Hawaii. Now that the shelter-in-place order has been lifted and the kamaʻāina economy is open (at least for the moment), it seemed appropriate to consider what may have changed. […]

Unemployment and Underemployment in Hawaii: A Troubling Picture

By James Mak, Justin Tyndall and Carl Bonham In 2019 Hawaii recorded one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country at 2.8%. Only five states—Colorado (2.6%), New Hampshire (2.6%), Utah (2.6%), Vermont (2.3%) and North Dakota (2.3%)—had lower unemployment rates.  The U.S. average was 3.7%. Hawaii’s annual average unemployment had been below 3% every […]

How Can the State Government Restore Fiscal Balance?

The impact of COVID-19 and the efforts taken to contain it have led to a rapid deterioration in the state’s short- and medium-term fiscal outlooks. At its May 28 meeting, the State Council on Revenue (COR) cut its general fund tax revenue forecast for FY2020-FY2026 by almost $10 billion. The Hawaii Constitution requires the Legislature […]

Early UI Data Reveals Differential Impacts of the Economic Shutdown

By Justin Tyndall and Philip Garboden Two weeks ago the Hawaii Department of Labor and Industrial Relations released its monthly snapshot of individuals receiving unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. The data represents only the 69,729 individuals receiving benefits on April 12th, 2020.  Data is also presented at the county level, allowing for comparisons across our islands. Since the […]

Sumner La Croix on diversifying Hawai’i’s economy

Multipliers and the effectiveness of government policies

By Byron Gangnes, Rachel Inafuku, and Peter Fuleky The economic shutdown in Hawaii and elsewhere due to the novel coronavirus has led to sharp reductions in employment and private spending, as well as historically large government fiscal responses. Analysis of the effects of changes in government spending and employment policies requires estimates of how much […]

UHERO Forecast with Scenario Analysis: Battered by COVID-19, Hawaii begins to reopen

The novel coronavirus crisis hit Hawaii with devastating effect. The abrupt economic shut-down, while successful in limiting the virus’s spread, has produced by far our sharpest and deepest economic contraction. But reopening has now commenced. The question is what that reopening will look like, how long it will take, and what the legacy of COVID-19 […]