UHERO
Peter Fuleky
Interim Forecast Update: Hawaii’s Economy is Shut Down to Deal with COVID-19
This is UHERO’s second interim forecast update to address dramatic recent developments associated with the novel coronavirus pandemic. Much has changed since the interim forecast…
The Agony of Restaurant Workers
Social distancing is necessary to slow the spread of COVID-19, but has significant economic impacts, hitting dine-in eateries disproportionately hard.
Interim Forecast Update: COVID-19 Will Impose Significant Economic Impacts in Hawaii
The spread of the novel coronavirus and recent visitor falloff lead us to lower sharply our outlook for the Hawaii economy. In the baseline forecast,…
Just Published: “Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data”
By Peter Fuleky Big data analysis has a long history in macroeconomics. In 1937, National Bureau of Economic Research researchers Wesley Mitchell and Arthur Burns…
Little relief from Hawaii’s high cost of living
By Rachel Inafuku and Peter Fuleky Living in paradise comes at a cost. Hawaii is notorious for its combination of high costs of living and low…
Dynamic Factor Models
Dynamic factor models are parsimonious representations of relationships among time series variables. With the surge in data availability, they have proven to be indispensable in…
Tariff Peril
By Byron Gangnes, Peter Fuleky, and Carl Bonham In a Sunday Tweet, President Trump threatened this week to increase dramatically the tariffs he has placed…
Benchmarking for a clearer employment picture
By Peter Fuleky, James Jones, Ashley Hirashima, and Rachel Inafuku The most widely cited measure of labor market activity in Hawaii comes from the Current…