Peter Fuleky

Tourism Water Use During the COVID-19 Shutdown A natural experiment in Hawai‘i

Many of the most popular tourist destinations are on small islands whose resources are in limited supply, and the effects of climate change and increasing tourism tend to worsen the outlook. In this study, we identify the relationship between tourism and water use on the Hawaiian island of O‘ahu. Hawai‘i closed almost entirely to tourism […]

COVID-19 infections, vaccines, and economic recovery

By Carl Bonham, Peter Fuleky, Byron Gangnes, and Justin Tyndall A year ago Hawaii was operating under its first COVID-19 Stay at Home Order. As business activity contracted, the state quickly shed more than 150,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate jumped from 2% to 22%. Today there is hope that the devastation brought by the […]

Nowcasting the Trajectory of the COVID-19 Recovery

I develop a weekly coincident index of economic activity in the State of Hawaii. The purpose of the index is to nowcast the recovery from the COVID-19 induced downturn. The index is the first principal component extracted from 18 daily and weekly state-level time series, it captures about 80% of the variation in the sample, […]

Estimating economic conditions during the COVID-19 crisis

By Carl Bonham and Peter Fuleky When the long-lived expansion of the past decade was interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, many economists turned their attention to new sources of data to track economic conditions. The indicators we have used historically were not timely enough in the quickly changing economic landscape. Take for example gross domestic […]

Nowcasting the Trajectory of the COVID-19 Recovery:
The Weekly UHERO Economic Pulse

By Peter Fuleky COVID-19 has brought the longest period of economic expansion in modern history to an abrupt halt. The pace and magnitude of decline in economic activity has been unprecedented, and the recovery ahead will likely be drawn-out and uneven. Making good business and public policy decisions in such a rapidly-changing environment requires data […]

Multipliers and the effectiveness of government policies

By Byron Gangnes, Rachel Inafuku, and Peter Fuleky The economic shutdown in Hawaii and elsewhere due to the novel coronavirus has led to sharp reductions in employment and private spending, as well as historically large government fiscal responses. Analysis of the effects of changes in government spending and employment policies requires estimates of how much […]

COVID-19: Developing Economic Recovery Scenarios for Hawaii

By Carl Bonham, Peter Fuleky, and Byron Gangnes A significant part of Hawaii’s economy has effectively been shut down to slow the spread of the coronavirus in the Islands. The mandatory fourteen-day self-quarantine requirement for arriving visitors and residents has largely put a stop to tourism. And the stay-at-home order for all non-essential workers that […]

UH News: UHERO fills critical need, especially during crisis

Interim Forecast Update: Hawaii’s Economy is Shut Down to Deal with COVID-19

This is UHERO’s second interim forecast update to address dramatic recent developments associated with the novel coronavirus pandemic. Much has changed since the interim forecast update that we released three weeks ago. COVID-19 has spread to more and more countries, with disastrous impacts being seen in several major European economies, including Italy and Spain. Nationally, […]