Peter Fuleky
The Agony of Restaurant Workers
Social distancing is necessary to slow the spread of COVID-19, but has significant economic impacts, hitting dine-in eateries disproportionately hard.
Read MoreInterim Forecast Update: COVID-19 Will Impose Significant Economic Impacts in Hawaii
The spread of the novel coronavirus and recent visitor falloff lead us to lower sharply our outlook for the Hawaii economy. In the baseline forecast, real visitor spending is expected to fall more than 10% this year and payroll jobs by 0.6%, with an attenuated recovery path. Alternative scenarios reflect a wide range of possible […]
Read MoreJust Published: “Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Era of Big Data”
By Peter Fuleky Big data analysis has a long history in macroeconomics. In 1937, National Bureau of Economic Research researchers Wesley Mitchell and Arthur Burns used 487 monthly and quarterly economic time series to advise policy makers on the state of the US business cycle. Since then advances in information technology and its ubiquitous use […]
Read MoreLittle relief from Hawaii’s high cost of living
By Rachel Inafuku and Peter Fuleky Living in paradise comes at a cost. Hawaii is notorious for its combination of high costs of living and low incomes relative to these costs. These factors impose hardships on Hawaii families of modest-to-moderate income and prompt some to consider relocating to less-expensive mainland locales. So how expensive is it […]
Read MoreDynamic Factor Models
Dynamic factor models are parsimonious representations of relationships among time series variables. With the surge in data availability, they have proven to be indispensable in macroeconomic forecasting. This chapter surveys the evolution of these models from their pre-big-data origins to the large-scale models of recent years. We review the associated estimation theory, forecasting approaches, and […]
Read MoreTariff Peril
By Byron Gangnes, Peter Fuleky, and Carl Bonham In a Sunday Tweet, President Trump threatened this week to increase dramatically the tariffs he has placed on imports from China. The aggressive trade policies of the administration and retaliation by foreign countries are already having an adverse impact on the US, China, and other trade partners. […]
Read MoreBenchmarking for a clearer employment picture
By Peter Fuleky, James Jones, Ashley Hirashima, and Rachel Inafuku The most widely cited measure of labor market activity in Hawaii comes from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program, jointly managed by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and Hawaii Department of Labor and Industrial Relations (DLIR). This program surveys a sample of local […]
Read MoreForecasting in a Mixed Up World: Nowcasting Hawaii Tourism
We evaluate the short term forecasting performance of methods that systematically incorporate high frequency information via covariates. Our study provides a thorough introduction of these methods to the tourism literature. We highlight the distinguishing features and limitations of each tool and evaluate their forecasting performance in two tourism-specific applications. The first uses monthly indicators to […]
Read MoreUHERO wins 2016 Polzin Prize for Best Paper at AUBER Fall Conference
UHERO is proud to announce that “Forecasting in a Mixed Up World: Nowcasting Hawaii Tourism” by Ashley Hirashima, James Jones, Carl Bonham and Peter Fuleky was awarded the Polzin Prize for Best Paper at the 2016 AUBER fall conference! We evaluate the short term forecasting performance of methods that systematically incorporate high frequency information via covariates. Our […]
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